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[this is a icon-] A slice from a data cube dataset

Population Projections (2016-based): a data cube slice

Population projections for Scotland and Scottish Areas, based on 2016 population estimates. Please see the Population Projections (2018-based) dataset for the most up-to-date projections.

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Dimensions
Dimension
Value
Age
  1. All
  2. Children (under 16 years)
  3. Working Age (16 - 64)
  4. Pensionable Age (65 and over)
  5. 0-4 years
  6. 5-9 years
  7. 10-14 years
  8. 15-19 years
  9. 20-24 years
  10. 25-29 years
  11. 30-34 years
  12. 35-39 years
  13. 40-44 years
  14. 45-49 years
  15. 50-54 years
  16. 55-59 years
  17. 60-64 years
  18. 65-69 years
  19. 70-74 years
  20. 75-79 years
  21. 80-84 years
  22. 85-89 years
  23. 90 years and over
Measure Type
  1. Count
Population Projection Variant
  1. EU migration 150%
  2. EU migration 50%
  3. EU migration Zero
  4. Fertility - High
  5. Fertility - Low
  6. Life expectancy - High
  7. Life expectancy - Low
  8. Migration - High
  9. Migration - Low
  10. Natural Change Only
  11. Population - High
  12. Population - Low
  13. Principal Projection
  14. Zero Outwith Scotland Migration
Reference Period
  1. 2016
  2. 2017
  3. 2018
  4. 2019
  5. 2020
  6. 2021
  7. 2022
  8. 2023
  9. 2024
  10. 2025
  11. 2026
  12. 2027
  13. 2028
  14. 2029
  15. 2030
  16. 2031
  17. 2032
  18. 2033
  19. 2034
  20. 2035
  21. 2036
  22. 2037
  23. 2038
  24. 2039
  25. 2040
  26. 2041
Sex
  1. All
  2. Female
  3. Male
Reference Area
(showing types of area available in these data)
  1. Countries
  2. Council Areas
  3. Health Board Areas
  4. National Parks
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About the Dataset
Contact
Publisher
Not supplied
Creator
Not supplied
In dataset
License
Issued
09/11/2017
Modified
21/10/2019
Next update due
This dataset will not be updated
Description

2016-based population projections for Scotland and Scottish areas, by sex and age group. More up-to-date population projections, based on 2018 population estimates, are available.

Please note that the following variants are only available at national level for Scotland:

EU migration 150%, EU migration 50%, EU migration Zero, Natural Change Only, Population - High, Population - Low.

The rest of the variants are available for all areas.

A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy.

The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration.

The principal projection is the main figure. Variant projections are produced to give an indication of the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour.

Three additional alternative variants showing what might happen if future levels of EU migration are higher, lower or zero have also been produced for Scotland only. These additional variants do not have National Statistics Status, and the assumptions for these variants have not been subject to the same rigorous quality assurance and assessment process as the other variants.

For more information on population statistics, please see the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population

Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available on the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2016-based Single year of age population projections data for Scottish areas are available on the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections/2016-based

Details
Confidentiality Policy

This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.

Quality Management

Details of the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the National Statistics publication on the NRS website. More information on the methods used to produce these projections is also available from the National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report on the ONS Website.

Accuracy and Reliability

The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends.

For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland.

The assumptions for the sub-national population projections are also based on past trends and are consistent with the assumptions for the national population projections at Scotland level.

There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK.

More information can be found in the Population Projections section of the NRS website.

Coherence and Comparability

Coherence - Further information on the population projections can be found in the Population Projections on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.

Comparability - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe.

Population projections are also produced for similar small areas in England, by the Office for National Statistics, Wales, by the Welsh Government, and Northern Ireland, by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. However, it should be noted that these projections are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and base years. More information on the similarities and differences in these projections is available in the subnational population projections across the UK page on the ONS website.

Accessibility and Clarity

It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.

Relevance

The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas, as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections, and as controls for small area population projections.

Timeliness and Punctuality

The most recent mid-year estimate is used as the base year for the projections.

National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Sub-national projections are published following the national population projections in October or November.

The dates of publications are preannounced on the Future Publications section of the NRS website.

Revisions

Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the Scottish Government website.

URI

This slice of multidimensional data is not a Linked Data resource in the database: it's a virtual resource (i.e. you can't query it by SPARQL). But does have a permanent unique URL which can be bookmarked.

https://statistics.gov.scot/slice?dataset=http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdata%2Fpopulation-projections&http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdef%2Fdimension%2FpopulationProjectionVariant=http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdef%2Fconcept%2Fpopulation-projection-variant%2Ffertility-low
Dimensions Linked Data

A linked data-orientated view of dimensions and values

Dimension Locked Value
Population Projection Variant
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/populationProjectionVariant
Fertility - Low
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/population-projection-variant/fertility-low
Age
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/age
(not locked to a value)
Reference Area
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refArea
(not locked to a value)
Reference Period
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refPeriod
(not locked to a value)
Sex
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/sex
(not locked to a value)
Measure Type
http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#measureType
(not locked to a value)