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[this is a data cube dataset] A data cube dataset in folders : Population, National Records of Scotland

Population Projections

Population Projections for Scotland and Scottish Areas

View as a spreadsheet
Dimensions
Dimension
Value
Age
  1. All
  2. Children (under 16)
  3. Working Age (16 - 64)
  4. Pensionable Age (65 and over)
  5. 0-4
  6. 5-9
  7. 10-14
  8. 15-19
  9. 20-24
  10. 25-29
  11. 30-34
  12. 35-39
  13. 40-44
  14. 45-49
  15. 50-54
  16. 55-59
  17. 60-64
  18. 65-69
  19. 70-74
  20. 75-79
  21. 80-84
  22. 85-89
  23. 90 And Over
Measure Type
  1. Count
Population Projection Variant
  1. EU migration 150%
  2. EU migration 50%
  3. EU migration Zero
  4. Fertility - High
  5. Fertility - Low
  6. Life expectancy - High
  7. Life expectancy - Low
  8. Migration - High
  9. Migration - Low
  10. Natural Change Only
  11. Population - High
  12. Population - Low
  13. Principal Projection
  14. Zero Outwith Scotland Migration
Reference Period
  1. 2016
  2. 2017
  3. 2018
  4. 2019
  5. 2020
  6. 2021
  7. 2022
  8. 2023
  9. 2024
  10. 2025
  11. 2026
  12. 2027
  13. 2028
  14. 2029
  15. 2030
  16. 2031
  17. 2032
  18. 2033
  19. 2034
  20. 2035
  21. 2036
  22. 2037
  23. 2038
  24. 2039
  25. 2040
  26. 2041
Sex
  1. All
  2. Female
  3. Male
Reference Area
(showing types of area available in these data)
  1. Countries
  2. Council Areas
  3. Health Board Areas
  4. National Parks
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About the Dataset
Contact
Publisher
National Records of Scotland
Creator
National Records of Scotland
In folders
License
Issued
09/11/2017
Modified
06/06/2018
Next update due
October/November 2019
Description

2016-based population projections for Scotland and Scottish areas, by sex and age group.

Please note that the following variants are only available at national level for Scotland:

EU migration 150%, EU migration 50%, EU migration Zero, Natural Change Only, Population - High, Population - Low.

The rest of the variants are available for all areas.

A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy.

The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration.

The principal projection is the main figure. Variant projections are produced to give an indication of the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour.

Three additional alternative variants showing what might happen if future levels of EU migration are higher, lower or zero have also been produced for Scotland only. These additional variants do not have National Statistics Status, and the assumptions for these variants have not been subject to the same rigorous quality assurance and assessment process as the other variants.

For more information on population statistics, please see the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population

Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available on the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2016-based Single year of age population projections data for Scottish areas are available on the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections/2016-based

Details
Confidentiality Policy
Not supplied
Quality Management
Not supplied
Accuracy and Reliability

The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends.

For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland.

The assumptions for the sub-national population projections are also based on past trends and are consistent with the assumptions for the national population projections at Scotland level.

There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK.

More information can be found in the Population Projections section of the NRS website.

Coherence and Comparability

Coherence - Further information on the population projections can be found in the Population Projections on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.

Comparability - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe.

Population projections are also produced for similar small areas in England, by the Office for National Statistics, Wales, by the Welsh Government, and Northern Ireland, by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. However, it should be noted that these projections are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and base years. More information on the similarities and differences in these projections is available in the subnational population projections across the UK page on the ONS website.

Accessibility and Clarity

It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.

Relevance

The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas, as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections, and as controls for small area population projections.

Timeliness and Punctuality

The most recent mid-year estimate is used as the base year for the projections.

National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Sub-national projections are published following the national population projections in October or November.

The dates of publications are preannounced on the Future Publications section of the NRS website.

Revisions

Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the Scottish Government website.

URI

This is a linked data resource: it has a permanent unique uri at which both humans and machines can find it on the Internet, and which can be used an identifier in queries on our SPARQL endpoint.

http://statistics.gov.scot/data/population-projections
Dimensions Linked Data

A linked data-orientated view of dimensions and values

Dimension Locked Value
Age
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/age
(not locked to a value)
Population Projection Variant
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/populationProjectionVariant
(not locked to a value)
Reference Area
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refArea
(not locked to a value)
Reference Period
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refPeriod
(not locked to a value)
Sex
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/sex
(not locked to a value)
Measure Type
http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#measureType
(not locked to a value)
Graphs

Linked Data is stored in graphs. We keep dataset contents (the data) separately from the metadata, to make it easier for you to find exactly what you need.

The data in this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections

The data structure definition for this data cube dataset is stored in the same graph as the data: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections

All other metadata about this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections/metadata

Linked Data Resources

A breakdown by type of the 771,432 resources in this dataset's data graph.

Resource type Number of resources
Collection 2
Component specification 8
Data set 1
Data structure definition 1
Observation 771,420
All metadata
In Graph http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections/metadata
Accessibility and Clarity http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/accessibility-and-clarity
It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the [Accessibility section](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/accessibility) of the NRS website. xsd:string
Accuracy and Reliability http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/accuracy-and-reliability
The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends. For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland. The assumptions for the sub-national population projections are also based on past trends and are consistent with the assumptions for the national population projections at Scotland level. There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK. More information can be found in the [Population Projections](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland) section of the NRS website. xsd:string
Comment rdfs:comment http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment
Population Projections for Scotland and Scottish Areas xsd:string
Comparability and Coherence http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/comparability-and-coherence
*Coherence* - Further information on the population projections can be found in the [Population Projections](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections) on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website. *Comparability* - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe. Population projections are also produced for similar small areas in [England](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2014basedprojections), by the Office for National Statistics, [Wales](http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/local-authority-population-projections/?lang=en), by the Welsh Government, and [Northern Ireland](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/population/sub-national-population-projections), by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. However, it should be noted that these projections are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and base years. More information on the similarities and differences in these projections is available in the [subnational population projections across the UK](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/subnationalpopulationprojectionsacrosstheuk) page on the ONS website. xsd:string
Contact email http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#contactEmail
mailto:statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk
Creator dcterms:creator http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/id/organisation/national-records-of-scotland
Date Issued dcterms:issued http://purl.org/dc/terms/issued
November 09, 2017 15:16 xsd:dateTime
Date Modified dcterms:modified http://purl.org/dc/terms/modified
June 06, 2018 20:29 xsd:dateTime
Description dcterms:description http://purl.org/dc/terms/description
2016-based population projections for Scotland and Scottish areas, by sex and age group. Please note that the following variants are only available at national level for Scotland: EU migration 150%, EU migration 50%, EU migration Zero, Natural Change Only, Population - High, Population - Low. The rest of the variants are available for all areas. A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy. The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. The principal projection is the main figure. Variant projections are produced to give an indication of the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour. Three additional alternative variants showing what might happen if future levels of EU migration are higher, lower or zero have also been produced for Scotland only. These additional variants do not have National Statistics Status, and the assumptions for these variants have not been subject to the same rigorous quality assurance and assessment process as the other variants. For more information on population statistics, please see the NRS website here: [https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population) Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available on the NRS website here: [https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2016-based]( https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2016-based) Single year of age population projections data for Scottish areas are available on the NRS website here: [https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections/2016-based]( https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections/2016-based) xsd:string
Graph http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#graph
http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections
Has a SPARQL endpoint at void:sparqlEndpoint http://rdfs.org/ns/void#sparqlEndpoint
http://statistics.gov.scot/sparql
http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#nextUpdateDue http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#nextUpdateDue
October/November 2019 xsd:string
In folder http://publishmydata.com/def/ontology/folder/inFolder
Population http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/themes/population
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/organisations/national-records-of-scotland
Label rdfs:label http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Population Projections xsd:string
License dcterms:license http://purl.org/dc/terms/license
http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Publisher dcterms:publisher http://purl.org/dc/terms/publisher
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/id/organisation/national-records-of-scotland
References dcterms:references http://purl.org/dc/terms/references
http://statistics.gov.scot/help http://statistics.gov.scot/help
Relevance http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/relevance
The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas, as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections, and as controls for small area population projections. xsd:string
Revisions http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/revisions
Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the [Scottish Government](http://www.gov.scot/topics/statistics/about/natstats) website. xsd:string
Theme dcat:theme http://www.w3.org/ns/dcat#theme
Population http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/themes/population
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/organisations/national-records-of-scotland
Timeliness and Punctuality http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/timeliness-and-punctuality
The most recent mid-year estimate is used as the base year for the projections. National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Sub-national projections are published following the national population projections in October or November. The dates of publications are preannounced on the [Future Publications](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/future-publications) section of the NRS website. xsd:string
Title dcterms:title http://purl.org/dc/terms/title
Population Projections xsd:string
Type rdf:type http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
Data set http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#DataSet
Dataset http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#Dataset
http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#LinkedDataset
In Graph http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections
Structure qb:structure http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#structure
http://statistics.gov.scot/data/structure/population-projections http://statistics.gov.scot/data/structure/population-projections
Type rdf:type http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
Data set http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#DataSet
Machine-readable formats

In addition to this bookmarkable html page, this dataset metadata is also available for our robot customers in the following machine-readable formats. Please refer to the API documentation for more details.

dataset metadata JSON RDF/XML Turtle N-Triples Atom