add cart choropleth column cross cube error file folder geo help home lock obs poi rdf remove search slice spreadsheet success table unlock warning

[this is a icon-] A slice from a data cube dataset

Population Projections (2018-based): a data cube slice

Population projections for Scotland, based on 2018 population estimates

View as a spreadsheet
Dimensions
Dimension
Value
Age
  1. All
  2. Children (under 16 years)
  3. Working Age (16 - 64)
  4. Pensionable Age (65 and over)
  5. 0-4 years
  6. 5-9 years
  7. 10-14 years
  8. 15-19 years
  9. 20-24 years
  10. 25-29 years
  11. 30-34 years
  12. 35-39 years
  13. 40-44 years
  14. 45-49 years
  15. 50-54 years
  16. 55-59 years
  17. 60-64 years
  18. 65-69 years
  19. 70-74 years
  20. 75-79 years
  21. 80-84 years
  22. 85-89 years
  23. 90 years and over
Measure Type
  1. Count
Population Projection Variant
  1. Age structure - Old
  2. Age structure - Young
  3. EU migration 50%
  4. EU migration Zero
  5. Fertility - Constant
  6. Fertility - Constant, Mortality - No improvement
  7. Fertility - High
  8. Fertility - Low
  9. Fertility - Replacement level
  10. Life expectancy - High
  11. Life expectancy - Low
  12. Migration - High
  13. Migration - Low
  14. Mortality - No improvement
  15. Population - High
  16. Population - Low
  17. Principal Projection
  18. Zero Outwith Scotland Migration
Reference Period
  1. 2018
  2. 2019
  3. 2020
  4. 2021
  5. 2022
  6. 2023
  7. 2024
  8. 2025
  9. 2026
  10. 2027
  11. 2028
  12. 2029
  13. 2030
  14. 2031
  15. 2032
  16. 2033
  17. 2034
  18. 2035
  19. 2036
  20. 2037
  21. 2038
  22. 2039
  23. 2040
  24. 2041
  25. 2042
  26. 2043
Sex
  1. All
  2. Female
  3. Male
Reference Area
(showing types of area available in these data)
  1. Countries
  2. Council Areas
  3. Health Board Areas
  4. National Parks
Download
Entire dataset
This is a very large dataset. Lock some dimensions using the links above, or use the data cart to build a custom download. Please contact us if you require a full download.
About the Dataset
Contact
Publisher
Not supplied
Creator
Not supplied
In dataset
License
Issued
21/10/2019
Modified
08/04/2020
Next update due
This dataset will not be updated
Description

2018-based population projections for Scotland by sex and age group.

A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy.

The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration.

The principal projection is the main figure. Variant projections are produced to give an indication of the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour.

Two additional alternative variants showing what might happen if future levels of EU migration are lower have also been produced. These additional variants do not have National Statistics status, and the assumptions for these variants have not been subject to the same assessment process as the other variants.

For more information on population statistics, please see the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population

Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available on the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2018-based

Details
Confidentiality Policy

This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.

Quality Management

Details of the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the National Statistics publication on the NRS website. More information on the methods used to produce these projections is also available from the National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report on the ONS Website.

Accuracy and Reliability

The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends.

For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland.

The assumptions for the sub-national population projections are also based on past trends and are consistent with the assumptions for the national population projections at Scotland level.

There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK.

More information can be found in the Population Projections section of the NRS website.

Coherence and Comparability

Coherence - Further information on the population projections can be found in the Population Projections on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.

Comparability - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe.

Accessibility and Clarity

It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.

Relevance

The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas, as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections, and as controls for small area population projections.

Timeliness and Punctuality

The most recent mid-year estimate is used as the base year for the projections.

National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Sub-national projections are published following the national population projections in October or November.

Revisions

Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the Scottish Government website.

URI

This slice of multidimensional data is not a Linked Data resource in the database: it's a virtual resource (i.e. you can't query it by SPARQL). But does have a permanent unique URL which can be bookmarked.

http://statistics.gov.scot/slice?dataset=http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdata%2Fpopulation-projections-2018-based&http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdef%2Fdimension%2Fage=http%3A%2F%2Fstatistics.gov.scot%2Fdef%2Fconcept%2Fage%2F20-24-years
Dimensions Linked Data

A linked data-orientated view of dimensions and values

Dimension Locked Value
Age
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/age
20-24 years
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/age/20-24-years
Population Projection Variant
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/populationProjectionVariant
(not locked to a value)
Reference Area
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refArea
(not locked to a value)
Reference Period
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refPeriod
(not locked to a value)
Sex
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/sex
(not locked to a value)
Measure Type
http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#measureType
(not locked to a value)