Population projections for Scotland and Scottish Areas, based on 2016 population estimates. Please see the Population Projections (2018-based) dataset for the most up-to-date projections.
| Dimension | Value |
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| Age |
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| Measure Type | |
| Population Projection Variant | |
| Reference Period | |
| Sex | |
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Reference Area
(showing types of area available in these data) |
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Entire dataset
This is a very large dataset. Lock some dimensions using the links above, or use the data cart to build a custom download. Please contact us if you require a full download. |
2016-based population projections for Scotland and Scottish areas, by sex and age group. More up-to-date population projections, based on 2018 population estimates, are available.
Please note that the following variants are only available at national level for Scotland:
EU migration 150%, EU migration 50%, EU migration Zero, Natural Change Only, Population - High, Population - Low.
The rest of the variants are available for all areas.
A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy.
The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration.
The principal projection is the main figure. Variant projections are produced to give an indication of the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour.
Three additional alternative variants showing what might happen if future levels of EU migration are higher, lower or zero have also been produced for Scotland only. These additional variants do not have National Statistics Status, and the assumptions for these variants have not been subject to the same rigorous quality assurance and assessment process as the other variants.
For more information on population statistics, please see the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population
Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available on the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2016-based Single year of age population projections data for Scottish areas are available on the NRS website here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections/2016-based
This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.
Details of the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the National Statistics publication on the NRS website. More information on the methods used to produce these projections is also available from the National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report on the ONS Website.
The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends.
For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland.
The assumptions for the sub-national population projections are also based on past trends and are consistent with the assumptions for the national population projections at Scotland level.
There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK.
More information can be found in the Population Projections section of the NRS website.
Coherence - Further information on the population projections can be found in the Population Projections on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
Comparability - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe.
Population projections are also produced for similar small areas in England, by the Office for National Statistics, Wales, by the Welsh Government, and Northern Ireland, by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. However, it should be noted that these projections are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and base years. More information on the similarities and differences in these projections is available in the subnational population projections across the UK page on the ONS website.
It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.
The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas, as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections, and as controls for small area population projections.
The most recent mid-year estimate is used as the base year for the projections.
National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Sub-national projections are published following the national population projections in October or November.
The dates of publications are preannounced on the Future Publications section of the NRS website.
Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the Scottish Government website.
This is a linked data resource: it has a permanent unique uri at which both humans and machines can find it on the Internet, and which can be used an identifier in queries on our SPARQL endpoint.
A linked data-orientated view of dimensions and values
| Dimension | Locked Value |
|---|---|
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Age
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/age
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(not locked to a value) |
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Population Projection Variant
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/populationProjectionVariant
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(not locked to a value) |
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Reference Area
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refArea
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(not locked to a value) |
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Reference Period
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refPeriod
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(not locked to a value) |
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Sex
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/sex
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(not locked to a value) |
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Measure Type
http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#measureType
|
(not locked to a value) |
Linked Data is stored in graphs. We keep dataset contents (the data) separately from the metadata, to make it easier for you to find exactly what you need.
The data in this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections
The data structure definition for this data cube dataset is stored in the same graph as the data: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections
All other metadata about this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections/metadata
A breakdown by type of the 771,432 resources in this dataset's data graph.
| Resource type | Number of resources |
|---|---|
| Collection | 2 |
| Component specification | 8 |
| Data set | 1 |
| Data structure definition | 1 |
| Observation | 771,420 |
In addition to this bookmarkable html page, this dataset metadata is also available for our robot customers in the following machine-readable formats. Please refer to the API documentation for more details.
| dataset metadata | JSON RDF/XML Turtle N-Triples Atom |