Unemployment Model Based Estimates (level and rate)
|Reference Area||95% Lower Confidence Limit||95% Upper Confidence Limit||Count||Ratio|
|Argyll and Bute||3.1||4.7||1,800||3.9|
|City of Edinburgh||3.2||5||10,200||4.1|
|Dumfries and Galloway||3.2||4.8||3,000||4|
(showing types of area available in these data)
|This slice, as a spreadsheet||csv|
Note: These may be large files.
The model-based estimate produces a single-best estimate for total unemployment for the local area.
The Annual Population Survey (APS), on which these estimates are based is published quarterly, but with each publication including data for one year. The four publications per year cover the periods January to December; April to March of the following year; July to June of the following year; and October to September of the following year. Three quarters of the survey observations included in one publication will therefore be included in the following publication. The model-based unemployment estimates (and the direct APS survey estimates) represent valid estimates for the period to which they refer but because, as explained above, estimates from consecutive quarters are based on common observations they are not independent, and should not be used for comparisons over time.
Comparisons over time for say the latest annual estimate should only be made using estimates for the same period a year earlier, as the data for these two periods will not include any common observations. Estimates of economic activity status are usually taken from surveys of individuals (nationally from the Labour Force Survey, and from the annual Labour Force Survey or Annual Population Survey for smaller areas). However for most local areas, even the Annual Population Survey does not have a sufficiently large sample to provide precise estimates of unemployment. For this reason a statistical model has been developed to improve the annual LFS/APS estimates of unemployment, for small areas, by using supplementary information, mainly the numbers of claimants of Jobseekers' Allowance (the claimant count). The claimant count is not a measure of unemployment as not all unemployed people are eligible for the benefit (and some legitimate claimants would be considered to be employed under the International Labour Organization definition of employment). However, the claimant count does have a high positive correlation with the number of unemployed people in an area, and it is an administrative count so it is known without sampling error.
The model considers unemployment from the annual LFS/APS and claimant count for six age and sex groups, and also includes a socio-economic area indicator and a random area effect. The relationship between claimant count and the number of unemployed may be different in two areas in spite of them sharing the same factors in the model and this last term is included in order to model these random local differences. The inclusion of the random effect term gives the model-based estimates the property that, for sufficiently large samples, they will coincide with the direct survey estimates.
This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.
Details on the methodology and quality assurance of Annual Population Survey data can be found on the ONS website.
Where the estimate is unreliable (i.e. the group sample size is 3-9 or estimate is less than 500) or the group sample size is zero or disclosive (0-2), the data has been removed.
Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted and comparisons should only be made with the same quarter across years.
The Scottish Government publishes reports which present analysis on the labour market at Scotland and sub-Scotland levels.
Statistics from the APS are presented in reports and spreadsheets available on the Scottish Goverment's website.
The Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the English, Welsh and Scottish Labour Force Survey boosts increasing the sample size in Scotland, which means the APS can provide more robust labour market estimates compared to the main Labour Force Survey, for local areas and smaller groups of the population.
This dataset is updated quarterly.
In March 2020, as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) had to change the way it contacted people for initial interviews, from face-to-face interviewing to telephone-based. This had an impact on both the level of response and the non-response bias of the survey, and consequently the survey estimates.
The change in non-response bias was significantly evident in a change to the housing tenure of the Household Reference Person, with a lower proportion of rented addresses being included and an increase in the proportion of those owned outright by the occupier.
To mitigate the impact of this non-response bias, ONS looked at introducing housing tenure into the LFS/APS weighting methodology. While not providing a perfect solution, this has redressed some of the issues that had previously been noted in the survey results.
Link to full details of these changes:
Coronavirus and its impact on the Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
Note relating to Q1 2020 estimates onwards: Annual Population Survey (APS) responses are weighted to official population projections. As the current projections are 2018-based they are based on demographic trends that pre-date the COVID-19 pandemic. ONS are analysing the population totals used in the weighting process and may make adjustments if appropriate. Rates published from the APS remain robust; however, levels and changes in levels should be used with caution.
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