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[this is a data cube dataset] A data cube dataset in folders : Housing, National Records of Scotland

Household Projections of Average Household Size

25 year projection of household size (people per household) for Council Areas, Health Board areas, and National Parks. The data given here is part of the same projection shown in Household Projections, which shows a more detailed breakdown of the projection

View as a spreadsheet
Dimensions
Dimension
Value
Measure Type
  1. Ratio
Population Projection Variant
  1. Migration - High
  2. Migration - Low
  3. Principal Projection
Reference Period
  1. 2018
  2. 2019
  3. 2020
  4. 2021
  5. 2022
  6. 2023
  7. 2024
  8. 2025
  9. 2026
  10. 2027
  11. 2028
  12. 2029
  13. 2030
  14. 2031
  15. 2032
  16. 2033
  17. 2034
  18. 2035
  19. 2036
  20. 2037
  21. 2038
  22. 2039
  23. 2040
  24. 2041
  25. 2042
  26. 2043
Reference Area
(showing types of area available in these data)
  1. Countries
  2. Council Areas
  3. Health Board Areas
  4. National Parks
Download
Entire dataset
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CSVN-Triples
About the Dataset
Contact
Publisher
National Records of Scotland
Creator
National Records of Scotland
In folders
License
Issued
03/08/2018
Modified
18/11/2020
Next update due
September 2022
Description

This dataset contains information on the average number of people per household (‘average household size’) in each council, Health Board, National Park areas and in Scotland from 2018 to 2043. Average household size is calculated using the projected number of people living in private (non-communal) households in an area divided by the number of projected households in this area. Population living in private households are available on the NRS website. The number of projected households is also available from the same website and in the open data platform. For more information on household projections statistics, please see the NRS website and the About section of the household projections data on statistics.gov.scot.

Household projections are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every two years. The method and sources of data used for the 2018-based household projections have changed from those used for the 2016-based projections. Details of the changes and the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the Household Projections for Scotland (2018-based) publication on the NRS website.

This set of projections covers the period from 2018 to 2043, a projection period of 25 years. The household projections incorporate the latest (2018-based) population projections and the 2018 and 2019 household estimates (both available on the NRS website ). Information from Scotland’s Census 2001 and 2011 is used to project trends in the types of household that people are living in. Data from a range of sources on residents in communal establishments, such as care homes or prisons, are also included in order to project only the part of the population living in private households (non-communal).

The 2018-based household projections uses the 2018-based population projections, which gives information on the number, age and sex of people for each year of the projection period. Estimates of the communal establishment residents are then subtracted from the population projections to give the private household population for each projection year. Applying household representative rates (HRRs) to the private population produces household estimates. HRRs are projected using the data from 2001 and 2011 Censuses until 2021. From 2022 the HRRs are held constant. HRRs are then multiplied by the private household population to produce a projected number of households. The number of people who are the Household Reference Person (HRP) for particular household types is the same as the number of households of this type. After the initial projection, the data is re-constrained to the 2018-19 household estimate totals to make use of these more up-to-date dataset. Further minor refinements and constraints are applied in order to ensure consistency with the input datasets.

Details
Confidentiality Policy

-

Quality Management

Exactly the same methodology and procedures are used to produce all projections and geographies using a carefully checked and tested program. Output is compared to the previous projections to ensure consistency. Consistency between the three projection types is checked to ensure there are no large divergences. Any changes from the previous projections are investigated and ensured they are explainable from trends in the input data. Input datasets are checked for consistency with previous years, and any discrepancies queried with the data supplier.

Accuracy and Reliability

The household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are trend-based and are not, therefore, policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. They are based on the population projections and, as a result, assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the household projections. The household projections also rely on projecting trends in household formation from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. No forecast is made of future changes that may alter these trends, such as economic and social change, as well as imbalances between housing supply and demand. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable that those for larger groups as they are based on data from smaller numbers of people (or households). The uncertainty in the projections increases as they are taken further into the future. The 2018-based household projection report focuses on the ‘principal projection’, that is the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur, but also includes sections on household projections prepared using alternative population projections. These variant projections reflect possible effects of uncertainty in the assumptions made about migration in the population projections. More information can be found in the ‘Sources and methods’ section of the latest 'Household projections for Scotland'.

Coherence and Comparability

Household estimates and projections for other parts of the UK are available from the following sources:

There are many similarities between the methods used to create the projections for each country, but also some subtle differences. A joint report containing a broad comparison of the household projection methodologies across the UK can be found on Household projections across the UK: user guide.

Accessibility and Clarity

It is the policy of the NRS to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.

Relevance

Household projections are mainly used for informing council decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). They feed into development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future. The projections are also used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information from Ministers, councils, academics, other organisations and the general public. Household estimates and projections (Scotland and the UK) are used directly and indirectly in the production of certain statistics contained within the Annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) publication and the Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS) releases. They are used in QNAS as an auxiliary variable (alongside consumption data) in the production of Household Final Consumption Expenditure estimates by product. In turn, these expenditures inform the GERS publication in estimating revenues associated with consumption (e.g. VAT and duties). Some councils use information from the household projections, such as the proportion of people of each age group living in communal establishments, in producing local projections of future household numbers.

Timeliness and Punctuality

The projections use household estimates from 2018 and 2019. The projections are published as soon as possible after the household estimates become available (3 months later). The projection are considered to be 2018-based as the communal establishment data used are generally only available for 2018 by the time of publication.

Revisions

None

URI

This is a linked data resource: it has a permanent unique uri at which both humans and machines can find it on the Internet, and which can be used an identifier in queries on our SPARQL endpoint.

http://statistics.gov.scot/data/household-projections-of-average-household-size
Dimensions Linked Data

A linked data-orientated view of dimensions and values

Dimension Locked Value
Population Projection Variant
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/populationProjectionVariant
(not locked to a value)
Reference Area
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refArea
(not locked to a value)
Reference Period
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refPeriod
(not locked to a value)
Measure Type
http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#measureType
(not locked to a value)
Graphs

Linked Data is stored in graphs. We keep dataset contents (the data) separately from the metadata, to make it easier for you to find exactly what you need.

The data in this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size

The data structure definition for this data cube dataset is stored in the same graph as the data: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size

All other metadata about this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size/metadata

Linked Data Resources

A breakdown by type of the 3,832 resources in this dataset's data graph.

Resource type Number of resources
Collection 2
Component specification 6
Data set 1
Data structure definition 1
Observation 3,822
All metadata
In Graph http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size/metadata
Accessibility and Clarity http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/accessibility-and-clarity
It is the policy of the NRS to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the [NRS website](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/accessibility). xsd:string
Accuracy and Reliability http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/accuracy-and-reliability
The household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are trend-based and are not, therefore, policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. They are based on the population projections and, as a result, assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the household projections. The household projections also rely on projecting trends in household formation from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. No forecast is made of future changes that may alter these trends, such as economic and social change, as well as imbalances between housing supply and demand. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable that those for larger groups as they are based on data from smaller numbers of people (or households). The uncertainty in the projections increases as they are taken further into the future. The 2018-based household projection report focuses on the ‘principal projection’, that is the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur, but also includes sections on household projections prepared using alternative population projections. These variant projections reflect possible effects of uncertainty in the assumptions made about migration in the population projections. More information can be found in the ‘Sources and methods’ section of the latest ['Household projections for Scotland'](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections). xsd:string
Comment rdfs:comment http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment
25 year projection of household size (people per household) for Council Areas, Health Board areas, and National Parks. The data given here is part of the same projection shown in Household Projections, which shows a more detailed breakdown of the projection xsd:string
Comparability and Coherence http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/comparability-and-coherence
Household estimates and projections for other parts of the UK are available from the following sources: * England: [ONS](http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2018based) * Wales: [Welsh Government](https://gov.wales/subnational-household-projections-2018-based) * Northern Ireland: [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](http://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/population/household-projections) There are many similarities between the methods used to create the projections for each country, but also some subtle differences. A joint report containing a broad comparison of the household projection methodologies across the UK can be found on [Household projections across the UK: user guide](http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/householdprojectionsacrosstheukuserguide). xsd:string
Confidentiality http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/confidentiality
- xsd:string
Contact email http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#contactEmail
mailto:statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk
Creator dcterms:creator http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/id/organisation/national-records-of-scotland
Date Issued dcterms:issued http://purl.org/dc/terms/issued
August 03, 2018 18:07 xsd:dateTime
Date Modified dcterms:modified http://purl.org/dc/terms/modified
November 18, 2020 12:04 xsd:dateTime
Description dcterms:description http://purl.org/dc/terms/description
This dataset contains information on the average number of people per household (‘average household size’) in each council, Health Board, National Park areas and in Scotland from 2018 to 2043. Average household size is calculated using the projected number of people living in private (non-communal) households in an area divided by the number of projected households in this area. Population living in private households are available on the [NRS website](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/2018-house-proj-source-data-alltabs.xlsx). The [number of projected households](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/2018-house-proj-fullprinc-alltabs.xlsx) is also available from the same website and in the [open data platform](http://statistics.gov.scot/data/household-projections). For more information on household projections statistics, please see the [NRS website](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections) and the [About](http://statistics.gov.scot/data/household-projections) section of the household projections data on [statistics.gov.scot](http://statistics.gov.scot). Household projections are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every two years. The method and sources of data used for the 2018-based household projections have changed from those used for the 2016-based projections. Details of the changes and the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the [Household Projections for Scotland (2018-based) publication](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/household-proj-18-report.pdf#page=49) on the NRS website. This set of projections covers the period from 2018 to 2043, a projection period of 25 years. The household projections incorporate the latest (2018-based) population projections and the 2018 and 2019 household estimates (both available on the [NRS website](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-estimates) ). Information from Scotland’s Census 2001 and 2011 is used to project trends in the types of household that people are living in. Data from a range of sources on residents in communal establishments, such as care homes or prisons, are also included in order to project only the part of the population living in private households (non-communal). The 2018-based household projections uses the [2018-based population projections](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections), which gives information on the number, age and sex of people for each year of the projection period. Estimates of the communal establishment residents are then subtracted from the population projections to give the private household population for each projection year. Applying household representative rates (HRRs) to the private population produces household estimates. HRRs are projected using the data from 2001 and 2011 Censuses until 2021. From 2022 the HRRs are held constant. HRRs are then multiplied by the private household population to produce a projected number of households. The number of people who are the [Household Reference Person (HRP)](http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/variables-classification/household-reference-person) for particular household types is the same as the number of households of this type. After the initial projection, the data is re-constrained to the 2018-19 household estimate totals to make use of these more up-to-date dataset. Further minor refinements and constraints are applied in order to ensure consistency with the input datasets. xsd:string
Graph http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#graph
http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size
Has a SPARQL endpoint at void:sparqlEndpoint http://rdfs.org/ns/void#sparqlEndpoint
http://statistics.gov.scot/sparql
http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#nextUpdateDue http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#nextUpdateDue
September 2022 xsd:string
In folder http://publishmydata.com/def/ontology/folder/inFolder
Housing http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/themes/housing
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/organisations/national-records-of-scotland
Label rdfs:label http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Household Projections of Average Household Size xsd:string
License dcterms:license http://purl.org/dc/terms/license
http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Publisher dcterms:publisher http://purl.org/dc/terms/publisher
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/id/organisation/national-records-of-scotland
Quality Management http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/quality-management
Exactly the same methodology and procedures are used to produce all projections and geographies using a carefully checked and tested program. Output is compared to the previous projections to ensure consistency. Consistency between the three projection types is checked to ensure there are no large divergences. Any changes from the previous projections are investigated and ensured they are explainable from trends in the input data. Input datasets are checked for consistency with previous years, and any discrepancies queried with the data supplier. xsd:string
References dcterms:references http://purl.org/dc/terms/references
http://statistics.gov.scot/help http://statistics.gov.scot/help
Relevance http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/relevance
Household projections are mainly used for informing council decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). They feed into development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future. The projections are also used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information from Ministers, councils, academics, other organisations and the general public. Household estimates and projections (Scotland and the UK) are used directly and indirectly in the production of certain statistics contained within the [Annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS)](http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS) publication and the [Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS)](https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#gdpquarterlynationalaccounts,scotland(qnas) releases. They are used in QNAS as an auxiliary variable (alongside consumption data) in the production of Household Final Consumption Expenditure estimates by product. In turn, these expenditures inform the GERS publication in estimating revenues associated with consumption (e.g. VAT and duties). Some councils use information from the household projections, such as the proportion of people of each age group living in communal establishments, in producing local projections of future household numbers. xsd:string
Revisions http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/revisions
None xsd:string
Theme dcat:theme http://www.w3.org/ns/dcat#theme
Housing http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/themes/housing
National Records of Scotland http://statistics.gov.scot/def/concept/folders/organisations/national-records-of-scotland
Timeliness and Punctuality http://statistics.gov.scot/def/statistical-quality/timeliness-and-punctuality
The projections use household estimates from 2018 and 2019. The projections are published as soon as possible after the household estimates become available (3 months later). The projection are considered to be 2018-based as the communal establishment data used are generally only available for 2018 by the time of publication. xsd:string
Title dcterms:title http://purl.org/dc/terms/title
Household Projections of Average Household Size xsd:string
Type rdf:type http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
Data set http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#DataSet
Dataset http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#Dataset
http://publishmydata.com/def/dataset#LinkedDataset
In Graph http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size
Structure qb:structure http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#structure
http://statistics.gov.scot/data/structure/household-projections-of-average-household-size http://statistics.gov.scot/data/structure/household-projections-of-average-household-size
Type rdf:type http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
Data set http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#DataSet
Machine-readable formats

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