25 year projection of household size (people per household) for Council Areas, Health Board areas, and National Parks. The data given here is part of the same projection shown in Household Projections, which shows a more detailed breakdown of the projection
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(showing types of area available in these data)
Note: These may be large files.
This dataset contains information on the average number of people per household (‘average household size’) in each council, Health Board, National Park areas and in Scotland from 2018 to 2043. Average household size is calculated using the projected number of people living in private (non-communal) households in an area divided by the number of projected households in this area. Population living in private households are available on the NRS website. The number of projected households is also available from the same website and in the open data platform. For more information on household projections statistics, please see the NRS website and the About section of the household projections data on statistics.gov.scot.
Household projections are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every two years. The method and sources of data used for the 2018-based household projections have changed from those used for the 2016-based projections. Details of the changes and the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the Household Projections for Scotland (2018-based) publication on the NRS website.
This set of projections covers the period from 2018 to 2043, a projection period of 25 years. The household projections incorporate the latest (2018-based) population projections and the 2018 and 2019 household estimates (both available on the NRS website ). Information from Scotland’s Census 2001 and 2011 is used to project trends in the types of household that people are living in. Data from a range of sources on residents in communal establishments, such as care homes or prisons, are also included in order to project only the part of the population living in private households (non-communal).
The 2018-based household projections uses the 2018-based population projections, which gives information on the number, age and sex of people for each year of the projection period. Estimates of the communal establishment residents are then subtracted from the population projections to give the private household population for each projection year. Applying household representative rates (HRRs) to the private population produces household estimates. HRRs are projected using the data from 2001 and 2011 Censuses until 2021. From 2022 the HRRs are held constant. HRRs are then multiplied by the private household population to produce a projected number of households. The number of people who are the Household Reference Person (HRP) for particular household types is the same as the number of households of this type. After the initial projection, the data is re-constrained to the 2018-19 household estimate totals to make use of these more up-to-date dataset. Further minor refinements and constraints are applied in order to ensure consistency with the input datasets.
Exactly the same methodology and procedures are used to produce all projections and geographies using a carefully checked and tested program. Output is compared to the previous projections to ensure consistency. Consistency between the three projection types is checked to ensure there are no large divergences. Any changes from the previous projections are investigated and ensured they are explainable from trends in the input data. Input datasets are checked for consistency with previous years, and any discrepancies queried with the data supplier.
The household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are trend-based and are not, therefore, policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. They are based on the population projections and, as a result, assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the household projections. The household projections also rely on projecting trends in household formation from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. No forecast is made of future changes that may alter these trends, such as economic and social change, as well as imbalances between housing supply and demand. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable that those for larger groups as they are based on data from smaller numbers of people (or households). The uncertainty in the projections increases as they are taken further into the future. The 2018-based household projection report focuses on the ‘principal projection’, that is the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur, but also includes sections on household projections prepared using alternative population projections. These variant projections reflect possible effects of uncertainty in the assumptions made about migration in the population projections. More information can be found in the ‘Sources and methods’ section of the latest 'Household projections for Scotland'.
Household estimates and projections for other parts of the UK are available from the following sources:
There are many similarities between the methods used to create the projections for each country, but also some subtle differences. A joint report containing a broad comparison of the household projection methodologies across the UK can be found on Household projections across the UK: user guide.
It is the policy of the NRS to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.
Household projections are mainly used for informing council decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). They feed into development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future. The projections are also used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information from Ministers, councils, academics, other organisations and the general public. Household estimates and projections (Scotland and the UK) are used directly and indirectly in the production of certain statistics contained within the Annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) publication and the Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS) releases. They are used in QNAS as an auxiliary variable (alongside consumption data) in the production of Household Final Consumption Expenditure estimates by product. In turn, these expenditures inform the GERS publication in estimating revenues associated with consumption (e.g. VAT and duties). Some councils use information from the household projections, such as the proportion of people of each age group living in communal establishments, in producing local projections of future household numbers.
The projections use household estimates from 2018 and 2019. The projections are published as soon as possible after the household estimates become available (3 months later). The projection are considered to be 2018-based as the communal establishment data used are generally only available for 2018 by the time of publication.
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Population Projection Variant
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The data in this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size
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All other metadata about this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/household-projections-of-average-household-size/metadata
A breakdown by type of the 3,832 resources in this dataset's data graph.
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